SOM 307 - Data Analysis and Modeling » Fall 2021 » ES Mad 4

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Question #1
Given the data. Answer the following questions using an initial alpha value of 0.34. t At 1 14133 2 9828 3 9690 4 13399 5 6158 6 5859 7 5445 8 10639 9 5408 10 16949 11 7989 12 6060 13 3150 14 11702 15 12504 16 10961 17 2396 18 5531 19 14333 20 7071 21 6246 22 8568 23 8412 24 2715 25 3778 26 11189 27 7502 28 3595 29 12899 30 10345 31 13781 32 7009 33 14107 34 13672 35 4102 36 12140 37 10844 38 5269 39 17829 40 10742 41 17351 42 1791 43 5280 44 13580 45 8880 46 4731 47 9079 48 5751 49 12116 50 7502 Compute your forecast for period 51.
A.   6596.84 units.
B.   5645.87 units.
C.   10984.29 units.
D.   9319.05 units.
E.   8513.07 units.
Question #2
Given the data. Answer the following questions using an initial alpha value of 0.34. t At 1 14133 2 9828 3 9690 4 13399 5 6158 6 5859 7 5445 8 10639 9 5408 10 16949 11 7989 12 6060 13 3150 14 11702 15 12504 16 10961 17 2396 18 5531 19 14333 20 7071 21 6246 22 8568 23 8412 24 2715 25 3778 26 11189 27 7502 28 3595 29 12899 30 10345 31 13781 32 7009 33 14107 34 13672 35 4102 36 12140 37 10844 38 5269 39 17829 40 10742 41 17351 42 1791 43 5280 44 13580 45 8880 46 4731 47 9079 48 5751 49 12116 50 7502 Compute the MAD value for period 50.
A.   2831.53 units.
B.   3707.52 units.
C.   4629.41 units.
D.   3908.98 units.
E.   1646.73 units.
Question #3
Given the data. Answer the following questions using an initial alpha value of 0.34. t At 1 14133 2 9828 3 9690 4 13399 5 6158 6 5859 7 5445 8 10639 9 5408 10 16949 11 7989 12 6060 13 3150 14 11702 15 12504 16 10961 17 2396 18 5531 19 14333 20 7071 21 6246 22 8568 23 8412 24 2715 25 3778 26 11189 27 7502 28 3595 29 12899 30 10345 31 13781 32 7009 33 14107 34 13672 35 4102 36 12140 37 10844 38 5269 39 17829 40 10742 41 17351 42 1791 43 5280 44 13580 45 8880 46 4731 47 9079 48 5751 49 12116 50 7502 Compute standard deviation of forecast for period 51.
A.   3539.41 units.
B.   5786.76 units.
C.   4886.22 units.
D.   2058.41 units.
E.   2186.16 units.
Question #4
Given the data. Answer the following questions using an initial alpha value of 0.34. t At 1 14133 2 9828 3 9690 4 13399 5 6158 6 5859 7 5445 8 10639 9 5408 10 16949 11 7989 12 6060 13 3150 14 11702 15 12504 16 10961 17 2396 18 5531 19 14333 20 7071 21 6246 22 8568 23 8412 24 2715 25 3778 26 11189 27 7502 28 3595 29 12899 30 10345 31 13781 32 7009 33 14107 34 13672 35 4102 36 12140 37 10844 38 5269 39 17829 40 10742 41 17351 42 1791 43 5280 44 13580 45 8880 46 4731 47 9079 48 5751 49 12116 50 7502 Compute the best alpha value to three decimal points.
A.   0.013.
B.   0.137.
C.   0.159.
D.   0.399.
E.   0.136.

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